Contrasting Seasons: Australian Crop Production Trends in 2023-24

Australian crop production for both summer and winter crops is undergoing significant shifts in the 2023-24 season. Forecasts indicate a 17% decrease in summer crop production to 4.3 million tonnes compared to the previous year's highs, but it remains 22% above the 10-year average up to 2022-23. The decline is attributed to drier conditions during the early planting window in major dryland cropping regions of Queensland and northern New South Wales. However, favorable late spring and summer conditions in these regions, boosted by significant rainfall influenced by ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily and ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln, have provided excellent summer crop prospects. Despite localized damage from Fall Armyworm reported in sorghum and corn crops, higher yields in unaffected areas are expected to offset losses.

Sorghum production is forecast to decrease by 24% to 2.0 million tonnes, reflecting a 38% upward revision from previous estimates. Similarly, cotton lint production is anticipated to fall by 18% to 1.0 million tonnes, with a 32% increase from the 10-year average. However, despite a decline in planted area, cotton production is likely to remain above the 10-year average due to high water storages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin and late planting of dryland cotton in New South Wales.

Meanwhile, Australian winter crop production is estimated to decrease by 32% to 46.7 million tonnes in 2023–24. Despite this decline from record highs achieved in the previous season, it slightly exceeds the 10-year average. Seasonal conditions across winter cropping regions varied, with favorable timing of rainfall events benefiting production in southern New South Wales, Victoria, and parts of South Australia, while persistent dryness reduced yield potential in Queensland, northern New South Wales, and Western Australia.

The national wheat crop saw a mixed quality profile, with a higher proportion meeting high protein grades compared to previous La Niña years, particularly in Western Australia and South Australia. However, wheat in Victoria and parts of New South Wales skewed towards lower protein grades due to wet harvest conditions. National winter crop production has been slightly revised up compared to earlier forecasts, mainly due to improved production in Victoria and New South Wales offsetting reduced production in Western Australia.

Wheat production is forecast to fall by 36% to 26 million tonnes, barley production by 24% to 10.8 million tonnes, and canola production by 31% to 5.7 million tonnes, although the latter remains well above the 10-year average. These adjustments reflect the challenges and opportunities posed by the complex interplay of weather patterns and agricultural practices across different regions of Australia